I receive on a daily basis information from important gentlemen funded by not less important foundations of what is happening at the turkish or Jordan border.
I volunteer to enter In Syria and report some facts and findings I already checked during my trips, thanks to the opportunity to speak with people without interpreters.
1) the minority cartel that is ruling Syria is approximately 30% of the population ( Alawis, Shia , turkomans, Christians of different faiths and minor sects). The remaining 70% of Sunnis is divided between the regime followers ( 50%) and those in favour some sort of change ( 20%).
This 20% minority is divided among ” western democrats” (5%?) and Muslim loyal to Sunni Imams ( 10% probably, most of them flying the war in Jordan, Lebanon ) and a 5% funded by Saudi Arabia showing a salafist, ( rigid and medieval) religiosity.
Roughly, this mosaic makes a 65% majority for Assad regime, most of them for the sake of ” law and order” .
2) the repression of Syrian pro Assad forces is very heavy, due to the military training and doctrine received by Russian advisors: ” if in a building there is a sniper, destroy the entire building regardless of collateral damages”.
3) this rough attitude has caused many casualties even if not as many calculated – from London – by the Syrian observatory that has no connection with internationally recognised organisations with similar names .
4) in this situation, a shift of the balance of forces could happen only if – as happened in Lybia – an air support is given to the Syrian Liberation Army( by NATO or by US Air Force or both).
The situation is similar to the cuban anticastro army in 1961 or with the Iraqi Kurds in 1991.
No air support, no victory.
5) Turkish military are not eager to open a second front and are asking for more arms and funds .
6) in this situation every hope of a quick military solution is impossible, a sniper or bomb attack against Assad , or family, is difficult to replicate and a coup d’état from the army out of question. There has been too much bloodshed and comrades to revenge. It’s time to think the unthinkable: a political compromise with Assad before being involved with the salafist embarrassing company.
7) remember what Rabin said once: “peace has to be made with enemies, not with friends.”
IL CORRIERE DELLA COLLERA 